MORGAN STANLEY SPEAKS ON ECONOMY

August 20th, 2007

We are all aware of the dislocation in the mortgage and financial markets. The question for Maui property owners is "what doe sit all mean?" Here is Morgan Stanley's take on what will take place. Some snippets:

 

The Fed's aggressive action to restore market liquidity will avert a financial crisis, but investors still must focus on threats to global growth and their implications for risky assets…. Our assessment of an 'alternative' — not a 'bear-case' alternative — suggests slower growth but hardly a recession.  In this alternative scenario, we assume a 3-6-month period of significantly reduced liquidity and market access, together with a further 5-10% slide in developed-market equity prices, and a 10-20% drop in emerging markets.  In this case, the hit to global growth would amount to roughly 0.5-0.75 percentage points and the outcome might trim global inflation by about 0.5%…The US outlook is clearly central to our assessment of risks to growth.  Tighter financial conditions will likely deepen and prolong the housing downturn, by more even than our already-gloomy view of housing activity.  In turn, such a sharper pullback will trigger additional weakness in construction and related employment and in home prices, challenging the resilient consumer.  However, it's worth stressing that we still rely on relatively vigorous non-US growth to be a cushion for a deeper housing recession and weaker consumer spending.  

 

A reasonably gloomy outlook, but they foresee no recession. What does this mean for Maui property owners? We are likely to see some easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. That would be welcome news.

 

The entire article is worth reading.