A new study by economic research firm Global Insight has found that the median home price in Oahu is overvalued by 45% and is in the "extreme" category:

O'ahu's median single-family home price in the first quarter was the 23rd highest of 54 U.S. housing markets with an "extreme" value — defined as being more than 34 percent above normal. At $650,400, O'ahu's median home price was deemed overvalued by 45 percent, or nearly $300,000…Global Insight and National City suggested that home price resiliency is more precarious in markets with higher overvaluations, but did not draw any conclusions or forecasts about possibilities for price corrections.

Studies like this do not, and to be fair cannot, take into account the makeup and nature of ownership in resort markets. For resort markets, we believe this analysis is too simple. So do some others.

Local economists Paul Brewbaker of Bank of Hawaii and Carl Bonham of the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization have said they don't believe O'ahu home prices will decline significantly, in large part because of expectations for continued job and population growth, rising personal income, flat interest rates, and a steady supply of buyers interested in second homes.

Now of course, this is about Oahu and not Maui. But Oahu is the only major market in the area so when potential buyers read things like this, Maui likey gets lumped in.